Valencia 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valencia face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valencia's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mallorca's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Mallorca have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Mallorca edge it 3 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2024, ended Valencia 1–2 Mallorca — a Mallorca win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 50% versus Mallorca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 46% | Mallorca 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Valencia surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Mallorca have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.40 xG and Mallorca 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.939 / defence 1.074 | Mallorca attack 0.840 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.190. Data: built from Valencia's last 66 games and Mallorca's last 66.
Result probabilities: Valencia 44% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 29%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.25 | Draw 3.74 | Mallorca 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valencia 60% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 44% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Valencia 1.40 / Mallorca 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.939 / def 1.074 | Mallorca attack 0.840 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Valencia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mallorca xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Mallorca kick off?
Valencia vs Mallorca kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Valencia 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Valencia vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Mallorca part of?
Valencia vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 44% chance of winning, Mallorca a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valencia and Mallorca will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Valencia vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valencia's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.84x) against Valencia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 66 games and Mallorca's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.74
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.47
1.07
Mallorca xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Valencia and 1.07 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 19W 20D 27L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 19W 23D 24L from 66 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Valencia against 1.21 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 32 home games (13W 9D 10L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 7W 10D 15L from their last 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.92 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
Valencia (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Valencia vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 19W 20D 27L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 19W 23D 24L in their last 66 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Mallorca away?
Valencia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.50 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
5
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 47%, Mallorca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Valencia) and 34% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 28% of games; Mallorca in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Mallorca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Valencia's recent games and 34% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.40 xG and Mallorca 1.07 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 44% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 29%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 46%, Mallorca 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.17 PPG, Mallorca 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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