🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Levante 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Levante 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.40 xG and Levante 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levante landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Levante attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 42% | Draw 27% | Levante 31%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 50%, Levante 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Levante's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 0.83 PPG, Levante 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights