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Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Espanyol 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Espanyol 3-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 0.94 xG and Espanyol 1.03 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Espanyol outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Espanyol attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 31% | Draw 34% | Espanyol 36%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Espanyol 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.14 PPG, Espanyol 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights