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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valencia and Elche share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 19, as Valencia and Elche drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.53 xG and Elche 0.80 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Elche attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 53% | Draw 29% | Elche 18%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Elche 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Elche's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 0.89 PPG, Elche 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights