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Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sevilla.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Sevilla 0-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.46 xG and Real Betis 1.51 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sevilla fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Real Betis attack 1.15 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 37% | Draw 24% | Real Betis 39%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 49%, Real Betis 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Real Betis's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Betis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights