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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sevilla and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.34 xG and Osasuna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 45% | Draw 28% | Osasuna 28%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 46%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.13 PPG, Osasuna 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights