Sevilla 1-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sevilla at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Girona travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Girona's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sevilla at 1.10 PPG versus Girona's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sevilla have won 0, Girona 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Girona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Girona trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sevilla 62% and Girona 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 52% | Girona 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.31 xG and Girona 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.995 / defence 1.137 | Girona attack 1.036 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.085. Data: 40 Sevilla games / 40 Girona games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 37% | Draw 29% | Girona 35%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Girona 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Girona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 37% | Draw 29% | Girona 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Sevilla 1.31 / Girona 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.995 / def 1.137 | Girona attack 1.036 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Girona xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Girona kick off?
Sevilla vs Girona kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Sevilla 1 - 2 Girona.
Where is Sevilla vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Girona part of?
Sevilla vs Girona is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 37% chance of winning, Girona a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sevilla and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Girona?
Record (2 meetings): Sevilla 0W | Draws 0 | Girona 2W.
What form are Sevilla and Girona in?
Sevilla (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.99) and Girona's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.50
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.59
1.28
Girona xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.28 for Girona, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 13W 10D 17L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Girona's form line: 14W 11D 15L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.23 PPG, Girona on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 8D 9L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.55 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Girona in 70%.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Girona in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Girona have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Girona away?
Sevilla's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.30 PPG; Girona away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when Girona won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
5
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Girona have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sevilla 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sevilla at 60%, Girona at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sevilla) and 50% (Girona).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sevilla's games and 70% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sevilla vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sevilla's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Girona tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Girona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Sevilla 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Sevilla 1-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.31 xG and Girona 1.28 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Girona attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 37% | Draw 29% | Girona 35%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 52%, Girona 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.23 PPG, Girona 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.