Sevilla 1-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sevilla face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Girona travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Sevilla — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sevilla's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Girona's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sevilla at 1.10 PPG versus Girona's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Sevilla's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Sevilla have won 0, Girona 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2023, ended Sevilla 0–2 Girona — a Girona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Girona trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sevilla 62% and Girona 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 52% | Girona 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sevilla surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Girona have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.31 xG and Girona 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.995 / defence 1.137 | Girona attack 1.036 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.085. Data: built from Sevilla's last 40 games and Girona's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 37% | Draw 29% | Girona 35%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.73 | Draw 3.50 | Girona 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Sevilla's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sevilla 70% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Sevilla 40 games, Girona 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 3 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 37% | Draw 29% | Girona 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sevilla 1.31 / Girona 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.995 / def 1.137 | Girona attack 1.036 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Girona xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Girona FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Girona kick off?
Sevilla vs Girona kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Sevilla 1 - 2 Girona.
Where is Sevilla vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Girona part of?
Sevilla vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 3) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 37% chance of winning, Girona a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sevilla and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sevilla vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.99) and Girona's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 40 games and Girona's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.50
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.59
1.28
Girona xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.28 for Girona, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 13W 10D 17L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 14W 11D 15L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.23 PPG, Girona on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 20 home games (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 8D 9L from their last 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.55 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Girona in 70%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
Sevilla (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Girona in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Girona have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Girona away?
Sevilla's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.30 PPG; Girona away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when Girona won Girona 5-1 Sevilla.
Sevilla's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
5
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 2, Girona have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Sevilla 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sevilla at 60%, Girona at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sevilla) and 50% (Girona).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sevilla's games and 70% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sevilla and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sevilla's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sevilla's recent matches and 75% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Sevilla 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Sevilla 1-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.31 xG and Girona 1.28 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Girona attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 37% | Draw 29% | Girona 35%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 52%, Girona 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.23 PPG, Girona 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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