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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Sevilla 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Sevilla 1-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.02 xG and Getafe 1.32 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Getafe attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 29% | Draw 28% | Getafe 44%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 41%, Getafe 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.05 PPG, Getafe 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights