🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Espanyol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.37 xG and Espanyol 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Espanyol attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 44% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 29%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 47%, Espanyol 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.08 PPG, Espanyol 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights