Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sevilla have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cadiz (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cadiz's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Sevilla. A 0.50 PPG lead over Cadiz (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Sevilla, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Cadiz — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Sevilla a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sevilla — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cadiz — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 60% versus Cadiz 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 51% | Cadiz 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.84 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.095 / defence 1.130 | Cadiz attack 0.675 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.090. Data: 73 Sevilla games / 73 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 61% | Draw 22% | Cadiz 16%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Cadiz 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Sevilla 60% | Cadiz 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 61% | Draw 22% | Cadiz 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Sevilla 1.84 / Cadiz 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.095 / def 1.130 | Cadiz attack 0.675 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Cadiz kick off?
Sevilla vs Cadiz kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Sevilla 0 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Sevilla vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Cadiz part of?
Sevilla vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 61% chance of winning, Cadiz a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sevilla and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Record (5 meetings): Sevilla 3W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Cadiz in?
Sevilla (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.68x) against Sevilla's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.48
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.67
0.83
Cadiz xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
3%
38.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.83 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sevilla come into this having played 73 games, going 23W 21D 29L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.97 PPG from 73 outings (15W 26D 32L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sevilla against 0.97 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sevilla's home form reads 13W 10D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.58 points per game from 36 outings (3W 12D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sevilla are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.74 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 23W 21D 29L in their last 73 games (1.23 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 15W 26D 32L in their last 73 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Cadiz away?
Sevilla's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.36 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sevilla
2
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Cadiz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 64%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sevilla) and 25% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sevilla's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sevilla's recent games and 25% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Cadiz tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cadiz defy the odds to beat Sevilla 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Sevilla 0-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.84 xG and Cadiz 0.83 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sevilla fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Cadiz attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 61% | Draw 22% | Cadiz 16%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Cadiz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 51%, Cadiz 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.23 PPG, Cadiz 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.