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Shock result as Real Sociedad defy the odds to beat Sevilla 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Sevilla 2-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.12 xG and Sevilla 1.30 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Sevilla attack 1.18 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 31% | Draw 29% | Sevilla 40%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 43%, Sevilla 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.11 PPG, Sevilla 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights