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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Sociedad and Real Betis share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad and Real Betis finished level at 2-2 at Anoeta, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.85 xG and Real Betis 1.47 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Real Betis attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 47% | Draw 23% | Real Betis 31%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 50%, Real Betis 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.24 PPG, Real Betis 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights