Real Sociedad 0-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Osasuna travel to Reale Arena to take on Real Sociedad. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Real Sociedad — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Reale Arena, Real Sociedad have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Sociedad at 1.20 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Real Sociedad hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Osasuna, with 1 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
The historical record gives Real Sociedad a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 44% versus Osasuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Sociedad 38% | Osasuna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.57 xG and Osasuna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.944 / defence 1.095 | Osasuna attack 0.889 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.084. Data: 48 Real Sociedad games / 48 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 48% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 24%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 4.17. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Real Sociedad 40% | Osasuna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 48% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Real Sociedad 1.57 / Osasuna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.944 / def 1.095 | Osasuna attack 0.889 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Osasuna xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Real Sociedad 0 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna part of?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 48% chance of winning, Osasuna a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Real Sociedad and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Record (6 meetings): Real Sociedad 4W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Real Sociedad's attack at 0.94x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.50
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
Osasuna xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
5%
20.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.05 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Real Sociedad have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 15D 14L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Sociedad on 1.50 PPG, Osasuna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Sociedad have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.23 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 19W 15D 14L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Osasuna away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.43 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Osasuna in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 6, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Sociedad 44%, Osasuna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Real Sociedad) and 56% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 30% of games; Osasuna in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 56% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 56% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Real Sociedad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Real Sociedad 0-2 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.57 xG and Osasuna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Osasuna outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 48% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 24%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 38%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.50 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.