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Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Real Sociedad 0-2 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.26 xG and Mallorca 0.82 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mallorca outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 47% | Draw 29% | Mallorca 24%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 41%, Mallorca 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mallorca's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.49 PPG, Mallorca 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights