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Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Levante 2-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 2.19 xG and Levante 1.24 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.24 / defence 1.19 against Levante attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 59% | Draw 20% | Levante 21%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 62%, Levante 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.

Levante's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights