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Dominant Real Sociedad run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Leganes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Leganes 3-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.16 xG and Leganes 0.80 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leganes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Leganes attack 0.74 / defence 0.97, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 31% | Leganes 25%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 33%, Leganes 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Leganes's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.29 PPG, Leganes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights