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Shock result as Getafe defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Real Sociedad 0-1 at Anoeta, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.57 xG and Getafe 1.12 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.26 / defence 1.20 against Getafe attack 0.82 / defence 0.80, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 48% | Draw 25% | Getafe 27%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Getafe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 51%, Getafe 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Getafe's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.28 PPG, Getafe 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights