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Dominant Getafe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Real Sociedad 0-3 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.02 xG and Getafe 0.66 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Getafe outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.84 / defence 0.72 against Getafe attack 0.79 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 43% | Draw 33% | Getafe 23%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Getafe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 33%, Getafe 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Getafe's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights