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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Sociedad and Espanyol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad and Espanyol finished level at 2-2 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.28 xG and Espanyol 1.16 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Espanyol outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Espanyol attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 39% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 33%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 41%, Espanyol 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Espanyol's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.21 PPG, Espanyol 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights