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Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Espanyol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Espanyol 2-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.38 xG and Espanyol 0.71 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against Espanyol attack 0.69 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 53% | Draw 28% | Espanyol 19%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 27%, Espanyol 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Espanyol's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.27 PPG, Espanyol 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights