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Prediction vindicated as Real Sociedad edge out Athletic Club 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Athletic Club 3-2 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 0.96 xG and Athletic Club 0.86 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Athletic Club outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Athletic Club attack 0.78 / defence 0.77, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 36% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 31%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 44%, Athletic Club 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Real Sociedad winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights