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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Villarreal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Villarreal 3-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.49 xG and Villarreal 0.92 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.13 / defence 0.82 against Villarreal attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 50% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 22%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 60%, Villarreal 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Villarreal's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Madrid 2.27 PPG, Villarreal 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights