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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sun 1 Feb 2026

13:00

Venue

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Real Madrid Win

77%

Real Madrid

1.30

16%

Draw

6.17

7%

Rayo Vallecano

14.68

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

14.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

3 – 0

11.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.44

Real Madrid xG

Total xG

3.06

0.62

Rayo Vallecano xG

77%
16%
Real MadridDrawRayo Vallecano

1.30

77%

Home win

6.17

16%

Draw

14.68

7%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.34

57%

BTTS No

1.74

Clean Sheet

54%

Real Madrid

1.85

9%

Rayo Vallecano

11.50

Win to Nil

42%

Real Madrid

2.41

1%

Rayo Vallecano

168.81

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.2
1 11.5 7.1 2.2 0.4 0.1
2 14.0 8.6 2.7 0.5 0.1
3 11.4 7.0 2.2 0.4 0.1
4 7.0 4.3 1.3 0.3
5 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.442
λ Away (xG) 0.617
Total xG 3.059
League avg home goals 1.461
League avg away goals 1.118
Real Madrid attack strength 1.378
Real Madrid defence strength 0.758
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 0.729
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 1.213
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59