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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 9 Mar 2025

15:15

Venue

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Real Madrid Win

54%

Real Madrid

1.86

27%

Draw

3.70

19%

Rayo Vallecano

5.22

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.4%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

2 – 0

11.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.44

Real Madrid xG

Total xG

2.17

0.73

Rayo Vallecano xG

54%
27%
19%
Real MadridDrawRayo Vallecano

1.86

54%

Home win

3.70

27%

Draw

5.22

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

37%

Over 2.5

2.70

63%

Under 2.5

1.59

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.52

60%

BTTS No

1.66

Clean Sheet

48%

Real Madrid

2.09

24%

Rayo Vallecano

4.21

Win to Nil

26%

Real Madrid

3.87

5%

Rayo Vallecano

21.97

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.4 8.4 3.1 0.8 0.1
1 16.4 12.0 4.4 1.1 0.2
2 11.8 8.6 3.2 0.8 0.1
3 5.6 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.1
4 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 0.6 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.437
λ Away (xG) 0.735
Total xG 2.172
League avg home goals 1.455
League avg away goals 1.125
Real Madrid attack strength 1.427
Real Madrid defence strength 0.857
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 0.763
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 0.692
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 64