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Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Real Madrid.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Real Madrid 0-2 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.78 xG and Celta Vigo 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Real Madrid fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.34 / defence 0.76 against Celta Vigo attack 1.16 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 56% | Draw 23% | Celta Vigo 21%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Celta Vigo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 62%, Celta Vigo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Celta Vigo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights