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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 38

Kick-off

Sat 23 May 2026

20:00

Venue

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Real Madrid Win

68%

Real Madrid

1.46

17%

Draw

5.73

14%

Athletic Club

7.02

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.2%

Home win

1 – 1

7.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.44

Real Madrid xG

Total xG

3.48

1.03

Athletic Club xG

68%
17%
14%
Real MadridDrawAthletic Club

1.46

68%

Home win

5.73

17%

Draw

7.02

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

68%

Over 2.5

1.47

32%

Under 2.5

3.12

46%

Over 3.5

2.17

54%

Under 3.5

1.85

27%

Over 4.5

3.70

73%

Under 4.5

1.37

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.43

Clean Sheet

36%

Real Madrid

2.82

9%

Athletic Club

11.51

Win to Nil

24%

Real Madrid

4.12

1%

Athletic Club

80.75

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.1 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1
1 7.5 7.8 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
2 9.2 9.5 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 7.5 7.8 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 4.6 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.2
5 2.2 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.443
λ Away (xG) 1.035
Total xG 3.478
League avg home goals 1.513
League avg away goals 1.142
Real Madrid attack strength 1.261
Real Madrid defence strength 0.872
Athletic Club attack strength 1.040
Athletic Club defence strength 1.280
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 75 / 75