Real Madrid 5-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Madrid face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Alaves travel to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu to take on Real Madrid. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 May 2024, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Madrid have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Alaves away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Real Madrid have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Real Madrid winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Real Madrid and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Alaves trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 46% versus Alaves 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 54% | Alaves 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.02 xG and Alaves 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.482 / defence 0.723 | Alaves attack 0.713 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.098. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.482 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Real Madrid's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Real Madrid games / 35 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 72% | Draw 19% | Alaves 9%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Alaves 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 40% | Alaves 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 72% | Draw 19% | Alaves 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 37% | xG Real Madrid 2.02 / Alaves 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.482 / def 0.723 | Alaves attack 0.713 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Alaves xG
37%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Alaves kick off?
Real Madrid vs Alaves kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Real Madrid 5 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Real Madrid vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Alaves part of?
Real Madrid vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 72% chance of winning, Alaves a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Real Madrid and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Alaves?
Record (3 meetings): Real Madrid 3W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Real Madrid and Alaves in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Alaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Real Madrid's attack at 1.48x the league average against Alaves's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
72%
1.40
19%
5.27
9%
10.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
2.58
0.57
Alaves xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
10.72
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
41%
2.46
1%
80.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.57 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Madrid come into this having played 35 games, going 28W 6D 1L for 2.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.20 PPG from 35 outings (11W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Real Madrid's home form reads 15W 2D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.82 points per game from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Real Madrid are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.97 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Alaves in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 28W 6D 1L in their last 35 games (2.57 PPG), while Alaves have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Alaves away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.76 PPG; Alaves away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Alaves in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Madrid and Alaves runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Madrid have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Madrid's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Real Madrid
0
Draws
0
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 8, Alaves have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Alaves?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 41%, Alaves 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Real Madrid) and 29% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Alaves in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 35% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Real Madrid's recent games and 29% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Alaves tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Alaves in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 5-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.02 xG and Alaves 0.57 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.48 / defence 0.72 against Alaves attack 0.71 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 72% | Draw 19% | Alaves 9%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 54%, Alaves 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.