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Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Real Betis 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Real Betis 1-2 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.52 xG and Villarreal 1.16 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Villarreal attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 45% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 29%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 43%, Villarreal 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.52 PPG, Villarreal 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights