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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Betis and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis and Valencia finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.94 xG and Valencia 1.21 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Real Betis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.20 / defence 1.00 against Valencia attack 1.02 / defence 1.17, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 54% | Draw 22% | Valencia 24%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 48%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.55 PPG, Valencia 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights