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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Betis and Sevilla share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis and Sevilla finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.99 xG and Sevilla 1.08 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sevilla outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Sevilla attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 58% | Draw 22% | Sevilla 20%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 52%, Sevilla 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights