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Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Real Sociedad 3-1 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.49 xG and Real Sociedad 0.93 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Real Betis beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Real Sociedad attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 50% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 23%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 55%, Real Sociedad 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights