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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Betis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Real Sociedad 3-0 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.20 xG and Real Sociedad 1.10 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Real Betis beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Real Sociedad attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 38% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 33%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 41%, Real Sociedad 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.41 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights