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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Betis and Real Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis and Real Madrid finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.27 xG and Real Madrid 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Real Madrid attack 1.22 / defence 0.83, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 36% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 38%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 51%, Real Madrid 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights