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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 18, as Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.13 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.84 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.75 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 42% | Draw 31% | Rayo Vallecano 27%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 40%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.47 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights