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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Real Betis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mallorca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Mallorca 3-0 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.53 xG and Mallorca 1.27 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Real Betis beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against Mallorca attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 43% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 31%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 54%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Mallorca's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.58 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights