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Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Levante 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Levante 2-1 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.98 xG and Levante 0.87 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Levante attack 0.87 / defence 1.23, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 63% | Draw 21% | Levante 16%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 51%, Levante 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Levante's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights