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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Betis and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis and Girona finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.83 xG and Girona 0.98 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Real Betis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Girona attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 57% | Draw 23% | Girona 20%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 54%, Girona 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights