🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Real Betis and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis and Celta Vigo finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.50 xG and Celta Vigo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.15 / defence 1.06 against Celta Vigo attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 42% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 32%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 52%, Celta Vigo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.58 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights