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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Real Betis and Athletic Club share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis and Athletic Club finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.21 xG and Athletic Club 1.47 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against Athletic Club attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 31% | Draw 26% | Athletic Club 43%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 39%, Athletic Club 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Athletic Club's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.44 PPG, Athletic Club 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights