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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Alaves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Betis beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.42 xG and Alaves 1.17 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Alaves attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 43% | Draw 26% | Alaves 31%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 54%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Alaves's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Betis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights