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Alaves cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Real Betis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Real Betis 1-3 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.77 xG and Alaves 1.13 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Alaves attack 1.00 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Betis 52% | Draw 23% | Alaves 24%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 39%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Betis's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.44 PPG, Alaves 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights