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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 32, as Rayo Vallecano and Valencia drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.39 xG and Valencia 1.52 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Valencia attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 35% | Draw 25% | Valencia 41%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.13 PPG, Valencia 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights