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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.12 xG and Real Betis 1.62 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Real Betis attack 1.25 / defence 0.97, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 26% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 49%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 40%, Real Betis 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Real Betis's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights