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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Wed 4 Mar 2026

18:00

Venue

Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Rayo Vallecano Win

57%

Rayo Vallecano

1.74

23%

Draw

4.38

20%

Oviedo

5.07

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

10.9%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

10.7%

Draw

2 – 0

10.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.84

Rayo Vallecano xG

Total xG

2.83

0.98

Oviedo xG

57%
23%
20%
Rayo VallecanoDrawOviedo

1.74

57%

Home win

4.38

23%

Draw

5.07

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.90

47%

BTTS No

2.12

Clean Sheet

37%

Rayo Vallecano

2.67

16%

Oviedo

6.32

Win to Nil

22%

Rayo Vallecano

4.65

3%

Oviedo

32.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.9 5.8 2.9 0.9 0.2
1 10.9 10.7 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1
2 10.1 9.9 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 6.2 6.1 3.0 1.0 0.2
4 2.9 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.843
λ Away (xG) 0.982
Total xG 2.825
League avg home goals 1.499
League avg away goals 1.137
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 0.917
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 0.924
Oviedo attack strength 0.935
Oviedo defence strength 1.340
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 25