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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano and Getafe finished level at 1-1 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.09 xG and Getafe 0.59 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.69 / defence 0.75 against Getafe attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 47% | Draw 34% | Getafe 19%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 40%, Getafe 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.27 PPG, Getafe 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights