Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio de Vallecas to face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rayo Vallecano have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's form when playing at home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 games at Estadio de Vallecas this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cadiz (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Cadiz have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 0.50 for Cadiz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rayo Vallecano lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 52% versus Cadiz 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 50% | Cadiz 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.10 xG and Cadiz 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.766 / defence 1.141 | Cadiz attack 0.604 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.129. Rayo Vallecano's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Rayo Vallecano games / 64 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 40% | Draw 37% | Cadiz 23%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Cadiz 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rayo Vallecano 70% | Cadiz 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 40% | Draw 37% | Cadiz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.10 / Cadiz 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.766 / def 1.141 | Cadiz attack 0.604 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cadiz xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 40% chance of winning, Cadiz a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz?
Record (5 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 2W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Cadiz (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.77) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.60x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
40%
2.49
37%
2.70
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
1.88
0.78
Cadiz xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.78 for Cadiz, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 20D 26L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.94 PPG from 64 outings (12W 24D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 0.94 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 10W 11D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.65 points per game from 31 outings (3W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.73 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 18W 20D 26L in their last 64 games (1.16 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 24D 28L in their last 64 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Cadiz away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.32 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rayo Vallecano won 5-1 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 64%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Rayo Vallecano) and 23% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 29% of games; Cadiz in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 23% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 27, as Rayo Vallecano and Cadiz drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.10 xG and Cadiz 0.78 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against Cadiz attack 0.60 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 40% | Draw 37% | Cadiz 23%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 50%, Cadiz 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.16 PPG, Cadiz 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.