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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 11 Oct 2026

16:00

Venue

Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Rayo Vallecano Win

56%

Rayo Vallecano

1.79

22%

Draw

4.45

22%

Athletic Club

4.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.5%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

1 – 0

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.87

Rayo Vallecano xG

Total xG

2.96

1.09

Athletic Club xG

56%
22%
22%
Rayo VallecanoDrawAthletic Club

1.79

56%

Home win

4.45

22%

Draw

4.60

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.78

44%

BTTS No

2.28

Clean Sheet

34%

Rayo Vallecano

2.96

15%

Athletic Club

6.51

Win to Nil

19%

Rayo Vallecano

5.31

3%

Athletic Club

29.95

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.2 5.6 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
1 9.7 10.5 5.7 2.1 0.6 0.1
2 9.1 9.9 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 5.7 6.2 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.7 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.874
λ Away (xG) 1.086
Total xG 2.960
League avg home goals 1.617
League avg away goals 1.119
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 0.968
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 0.904
Athletic Club attack strength 1.074
Athletic Club defence strength 1.198
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38