Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.90) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.54
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Athletic Club xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.15 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.