Racing Santander vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Racing Santander at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Racing Santander vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Racing Santander and Levante meet at Estadio El Sardinero in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Racing Santander (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Racing Santander have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Racing Santander — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Levante — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Racing Santander 67% versus Levante 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Racing Santander 67% | Levante 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Racing Santander 1.88 xG and Levante 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Racing Santander attack 1.102 / defence 1.319 | Levante attack 0.771 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.139. Data: 3 Racing Santander games / 41 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Racing Santander 54% | Draw 22% | Levante 23%. Fair-value odds: Racing Santander 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Levante 4.35. Racing Santander hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Racing Santander as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Racing Santander if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Racing Santander 67% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Racing Santander vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio El Sardinero • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Racing Santander 54% | Draw 22% | Levante 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Racing Santander 1.88 / Levante 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Racing Santander attack 1.102 / def 1.319 | Levante attack 0.771 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Racing Santander (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Racing Santander xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Levante xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Racing Santander vs Levante kick off?
Racing Santander vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Estadio El Sardinero.
Where is Racing Santander vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sardinero.
What competition is Racing Santander vs Levante part of?
Racing Santander vs Levante is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Racing Santander vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Racing Santander a 54% chance of winning, Levante a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Racing Santander the favourite.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Racing Santander and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Racing Santander vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Racing Santander and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Racing Santander and Levante in?
Racing Santander (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-W. Levante (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Racing Santander's attack rating (1.10) and Levante's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.77x) against Racing Santander's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Racing Santander Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.45
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Racing Santander xG
Total xG
3.04
1.16
Levante xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
4%
28.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Racing Santander vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Racing Santander and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.16 for Levante, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Racing Santander vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Racing Santander's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Racing Santander, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Racing Santander against 1.33 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Racing Santander are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Racing Santander have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Racing Santander
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Racing Santander and Levante in coming into this match?
Racing Santander have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Levante have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Racing Santander or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Racing Santander have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Levante in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Racing Santander are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Racing Santander 67%, Levante 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Racing Santander and 67% for Levante. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante in 33%; Racing Santander have failed to score in 33% of games; Levante in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Racing Santander home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Racing Santander play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Racing Santander's recent matches and 33% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Racing Santander vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Racing Santander's matches and 67% of Levante's.
Do Racing Santander and Levante tend to score early?
Racing Santander have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levante in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.