Racing Santander vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Racing Santander at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Racing Santander vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Racing Santander and Levante meet at Estadio El Sardinero in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Racing Santander (all games): 2W 2D 5L across 9 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.89 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 2.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.78 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Racing Santander, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Racing Santander at Estadio El Sardinero this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.89 — Racing Santander are significantly better at Estadio El Sardinero than their overall form suggests.
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.89 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Racing Santander — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Levante — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Racing Santander 67% and Levante 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Racing Santander 78% | Levante 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Racing Santander 1.98 xG and Levante 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Racing Santander attack 1.161 / defence 1.287 | Levante attack 0.720 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.254. Data: 8 Racing Santander games / 46 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Racing Santander 55% | Draw 24% | Levante 21%. Fair-value odds: Racing Santander 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Levante 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Racing Santander (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Racing Santander as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Racing Santander 100% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Racing Santander vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio El Sardinero • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Racing Santander 55% | Draw 24% | Levante 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Racing Santander 1.98 / Levante 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Racing Santander attack 1.161 / def 1.287 | Levante attack 0.720 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Racing Santander (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Racing Santander xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Levante xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Racing Santander vs Levante kick off?
Racing Santander vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Estadio El Sardinero.
Where is Racing Santander vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sardinero.
What competition is Racing Santander vs Levante part of?
Racing Santander vs Levante is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Racing Santander vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Racing Santander a 55% chance of winning, Levante a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Racing Santander the favourite.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Racing Santander and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Racing Santander vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Racing Santander and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Racing Santander and Levante in?
Racing Santander (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 2.78 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Racing Santander's attack rating (1.16) and Levante's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.72x) against Racing Santander's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Racing Santander Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.15
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Racing Santander xG
Total xG
3.14
1.16
Levante xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
3%
34.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Racing Santander vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Racing Santander and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.16 for Levante, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Racing Santander vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Racing Santander's recent record stands at 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Racing Santander is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 4L across 9 games — 0.78 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Racing Santander against 0.78 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Racing Santander have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Racing Santander are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levante's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Racing Santander come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Racing Santander are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.44 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Racing Santander have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Levante in 67%.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Racing Santander
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Racing Santander and Levante in coming into this match?
Racing Santander have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Levante have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Racing Santander at home or Levante away?
Racing Santander's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Racing Santander at home: 2.00 PPG; Levante away: 0.75 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Racing Santander are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Levante tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Racing Santander, 50% for Levante — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Racing Santander and 25% for Levante. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante in 50%; Levante in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Racing Santander home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Racing Santander play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Racing Santander's games and 50% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Racing Santander vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Racing Santander's matches and 25% of Levante's.
Do Racing Santander and Levante tend to score early?
Racing Santander have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levante in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.