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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oviedo and Real Betis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 19, as Oviedo and Real Betis drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.70 xG and Real Betis 1.12 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.45 / defence 0.92 against Real Betis attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oviedo 21% | Draw 35% | Real Betis 44%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 28%, Real Betis 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oviedo's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights